ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL CORRELATION BETWEEN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM USERS AND COVID-19 CASES: A CASE STUDY IN RECIFE (PE)

Abstract

Using public transport systems has been reported to be a possible vector of virus transmission during epidemics. In this context, this article aims to analyze the spatial correlation between public transportation users and COVID-19 cases, using Recife (PE) as a case study. Using spatial analysis, the Moran I Global and Local index were calculated, and global and geographically weighted regression models were estimated for the months of March to June 2020, considering neighborhoods in Recife as a spatial unit of analysis. The results indicated global and local spatial correlation between the variables considered. Nevertheless, the number of public transport users is a variable that influenced the number of COVID-19 cases, especially in April, May, and June. Finally, the public transport system may not have been the only factor that contributed to the spread of COVID-19 in Recife, given the high number of neighborhoods without an indicator of local spatial association with statistical significance. As the public transport system contributes to the mobility of people who work in essential activities to the urban life, strategies that contribute to social distance within the vehicles of the system are necessary.